Recessions & Hidden Beauty

Today, a quick overview of what’s going on in the financial and economic world.

Stocks seem to be caught in a volatile pattern as the Q3 earnings season heats up.

Something surprising could trigger a big move, but it’s hard to predict anything with certainty.

A potentially bigger concern: Several economists think that a recession may be on the horizon.1

The latest forecast by the International Monetary Fund predicts that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is going to take a chunk out of global growth this year and next.2

Fannie Mae is forecasting slowing growth in 2022 and a recession in 2023.3

When multiple forecasts start pointing in the same general direction, it’s worth paying attention.

So, what do we do with that information right now?

Do we panic and freak out? Bail on our investment strategies to head off losses?

Nope.

We wait and see. We sharpen our tools. We look for opportunities.

It’s natural to get uneasy when markets get dicey, but knee-jerk reactions can be costly.

An old proverb of disputed origin says: “Predictions are difficult, especially about the future.”

Forecasts are usually wrong in at least one way and relying too much on what “might” happen is a recipe for mistakes.

So, we keep our eyes open, our wits about us, and live our lives as we usually would.

A recession (or bear market) is not inevitable, so we shouldn’t act as though it is.

Bottom line: I’m watching and digesting the analysis as it comes in, and I’ll be in touch with recommendations as needed.

Have questions or concerns? Reach out to our Executive Team. That’s why we’re here.

Now, we have a big-picture question for you, faithful investor.

Where do you find beauty in the world around you?

This is not an idle question, by the way.

Humans are driven to want more, whatever we have already accomplished.

That’s not a bad thing but having the ability to take a step back and appreciate what’s in front of us right now is powerful. Especially in an uncertain world.

It puts us in the driver’s seat of our wants and trains our brains not to go into worry mode.

That search for beauty is why we go to the beach.

It’s why we go to the mountains.

It’s why we listen to music and look at art.

We’re looking for something to take us out of every day and show us something deep.

But beauty doesn’t need to be big and spectacular. It’s hidden in plain sight around us, waiting to be encountered.

It’s in the joy of a child. A dog zooming around the yard. A small act of kindness at the grocery store.

Knowing how to find beauty in the mundane is a powerful tonic to uncertainty and worry.

Where have you found it lately?

In search of beauty,

Prevail Innovative Wealth Strategies

 

P.S. Interesting fact: did you know there’s a theory of the stock market called the “Keynes beauty contest”? In the 1930s, famed British economist John Maynard Keynes was searching for a way to explain short-term stock market movements and theorized that it was similar to a newspaper contest choosing the most beautiful face.

To win the contest, readers had to choose the face that was the most popular choice among all contestants, meaning they had to guess what others would find attractive. Keynes compared this to how stock prices seemed to change not based on their fundamental value, but by anticipating what everyone else thought their value was (and what others anticipated the average investor opinion would be, and so on). Here’s an overview by Nobel Prize-winning behavioral economist Richard Thaler if you’re interested in reading more.

 

1 – https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-sees-some-risk-the-u-s-economy-will-stumble-and-fall-into-recession-in-next-24-months-11650294829

2 – https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/19/imf-cuts-global-growth-forecasts-on-russia-ukraine-war.html

3 – https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fannie-mae-forecasts-us-economy-to-fall-into-recession-next-year-2022-04-19

 

Risk Disclosure: Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only.

Investment Advisory services are offered through Prevail Innovative Wealth Advisors, LLC, a federally registered investment advisor. Registration with any securities authority is not an endorsement of the services offered by the investment adviser.  Fixed insurance products and services are offered through Prevail Strategies, LLC, a licensed insurance agency. A client may receive investment advice in addition to fixed insurance recommendations as a part of the financial planning process. Prevail Innovative Wealth Advisors, LLC and Prevail Strategies LLC have common ownership.   Prevail Innovative Wealth Advisors, LLC and Prevail Strategies LLC do not provide tax or legal advice.  You should always consult your CPA or tax professional for decisions involving tax implications present and future.

 

For a copy of Prevail Innovative Wealth Advisors Privacy Policy, Disclosure Brochure (Form ADV Part 2A), or Client Relationship Summary (Form ADV Part 3), please contact your Investment Adviser Representative or call our main office at (913) 295-9500.

 

Frequently Asked Questions

Quam elementum pulvinar etiam non. Nibh praesent tristique magna sit amet purus. Augue lacus viverra vitae congue eu. Bibendum est ultricies integer quis auctor elit sed. Tortor pretium viverra suspendisse potenti nullam ac tortor. Viverra orci sagittis eu volutpat odio facilisis mauris sit amet. Consectetur a erat nam at lectus urna. Senectus et netus et malesuada fames. Tincidunt arcu non sodales neque sodales ut. Nibh praesent tristique magna sit amet purus gravida quis. Ultrices neque ornare aenean euismod elementum nisi quis. Potenti nullam ac tortor vitae purus faucibus ornare suspendisse. Velit egestas dui id ornare arcu odio ut sem. Amet nisl suscipit adipiscing bibendum est ultricies integer quis auctor. Enim sit amet venenatis urna. Nunc sed blandit libero volutpat sed cras ornare arcu. Pellentesque dignissim enim sit amet venenatis urna.

Quam elementum pulvinar etiam non. Nibh praesent tristique magna sit amet purus. Augue lacus viverra vitae congue eu. Bibendum est ultricies integer quis auctor elit sed. Tortor pretium viverra suspendisse potenti nullam ac tortor. Viverra orci sagittis eu volutpat odio facilisis mauris sit amet. Consectetur a erat nam at lectus urna. Senectus et netus et malesuada fames. Tincidunt arcu non sodales neque sodales ut. Nibh praesent tristique magna sit amet purus gravida quis. Ultrices neque ornare aenean euismod elementum nisi quis. Potenti nullam ac tortor vitae purus faucibus ornare suspendisse. Velit egestas dui id ornare arcu odio ut sem. Amet nisl suscipit adipiscing bibendum est ultricies integer quis auctor. Enim sit amet venenatis urna. Nunc sed blandit libero volutpat sed cras ornare arcu. Pellentesque dignissim enim sit amet venenatis urna.

Quam elementum pulvinar etiam non. Nibh praesent tristique magna sit amet purus. Augue lacus viverra vitae congue eu. Bibendum est ultricies integer quis auctor elit sed. Tortor pretium viverra suspendisse potenti nullam ac tortor. Viverra orci sagittis eu volutpat odio facilisis mauris sit amet. Consectetur a erat nam at lectus urna. Senectus et netus et malesuada fames. Tincidunt arcu non sodales neque sodales ut. Nibh praesent tristique magna sit amet purus gravida quis. Ultrices neque ornare aenean euismod elementum nisi quis. Potenti nullam ac tortor vitae purus faucibus ornare suspendisse. Velit egestas dui id ornare arcu odio ut sem. Amet nisl suscipit adipiscing bibendum est ultricies integer quis auctor. Enim sit amet venenatis urna. Nunc sed blandit libero volutpat sed cras ornare arcu. Pellentesque dignissim enim sit amet venenatis urna.

Andrew Stafford

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Eu consequat ac felis donec et.

We Make Financial Planning Stress-Free!

Our Team-Based Approach is Comprehensive & Easy

1

Learn About You

Your Vision
Your Objectives
Your Opportunities
Your Challenges
Your Entire Picture (ie. Business & personal)

2

Develop Custom Strategies

Based on your unique situation
Leverage our team of experts
Establish wealth creating strategies
Determine ideal source of asset transfer

3

Build Wealth

Agree on and implement strategies
Establish tracking tools
Communicate regularly
Support you with a financial BOD

Investment Topics Found In

Get the Book Now!

Name(Required)
Address(Required)

Get the Book Now!

Name(Required)
Address(Required)